Description: This paper develops a method for estimating the future claim costs of known ongoing large medical claims. It applies Least Squares analysis of historical experience to derive two arrays of factors. One array is to be applied as a vector inner product with claim costs already incurred and/or paid to project a total future claim cost. The second array distributes the total future claim cost over the months following the analysis date.

Description: The two-parameter Pareto distribution is a commonly used model in reliability and risk modeling. Minimum variance unbiased estimates of the parameters of Pareto distribution are not known. In this paper, we propose and investigate a method of estimation of the parameters of the Pareto distribution. This method is based on minimization of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance between the empirical cumulative distribution function [cdf] and the cdf of the Pareto distribution.

Description: The purpose of this note is to show how certain formulas of life contingencies can be derived almost painlessly under the uniform distribution of deaths assumption.

Description: This paper introduces a conjecture as to a method for estimating how much has to be added to the probability of ruin by n claims to obtain the probability of ultimate ruin. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994 Vol. 2 .

Description: By the use of resampling and extreme value statistics we will develop a method to reduce the time and costs of testing insurance company insolvency. Most ruin models require assumptions about the surplus distribution and/or assumptions about the claims count and severity distributions. The actuary may not be comfortable in making these ruin assumptions. Instead, he or she may generate such distributions by running extensive computer simulations of corporate models, I introduce a method to reduce the number of simulations necessary' to estimate the 1 and 0.1 percentiles of the surplus distribution. This approach 'cuts off' the tail at approximately the tenth percentile of the sample distribution and generates new tails for the distribution by resampling. Averages of the new order statistics approximate the I and 0.1 percentiles.

Description: This presentation suggests a possible flexible solution to the time and resource problems of running a large number of stochastic interest rate scenarios, by selecting a representative subset. Each interest rate scenario consists of 30 future spot yield curves, where a reasonable number of points are specified on each curve such as 12. The distribution of the scenarios is approximated by the subset and each scenario in the subset has equal weight. The method is independent of the inter rate generator used.

Description: Presents a theoretical basis for a computerized methodology for estimating biological age - a measure of time to death.

Description: This paper suggests a possible flexible solution to the time and resource problems of running a large number of stochastic interest rate scenarios, by selecting a representative subset. Each interest rate scenario consists of 30 future spot yield curves, where a reasonable number of points are specified on each curve such as 12. The distribution of the scenarios is approximated by the subset and each scenario in the subset has equal weight. The method is independent of the interest rate generator used.

Description: Discusses the Canadian Institute of Actuaries' disability morbidity study to update the 1964 CDT and explains the techniques used to interpolate incidence rates from the 1964 CDT.

Description: Users of statistical packages should be more aware of the influence that outlying data points can have on their statistical analyses. Robust procedures provide formal methods to spot these outliers and reduce their influence. While a few robust procedures are mentioned in this article, one is emphasized and it is motivated by maximum likelihood estimation to make it seem more natural. In this article, the author will try to provide some background, beginning with maximum likelihood estimation of one parameter, that will hopefully make robust estimation seem natural and rather easy.